Wednesday, 6 February 2013

British Ministry Of Defense: Strategic Trends Programme Regional Survey - South Asia out to 2040

Britain could see riots in the coming decades sparked by the growing prosperity of south Asia, say experts.
A report published by the Ministry of Defence (mod) said many western economies could stall and decline in the face of the growing economic strength of countries like China and India.
Such a situation may spark long periods of recession and growing disaffection within the UK.
It added: “This could subsequently lead to increased incidents of internal unrest, a rise of nationalistic groups and a demand for protectionist economic and defence policies. 
“The western way of life with cheap access to a wide variety of consumer choice and cheap energy will be increasingly challenged as lifestyles follow GDP levels and balance across the globe.”
It also suggests that the UK and Europe could face a struggle in terms of importance on the international stage.
The US is likely to remain the world’s only superpower, but China and India are likely to become great powers with strong military forces.
The research said these three nations could form a powerful grouping, with the US turning its interest to the Pacific rather than Atlantic.
Europe would still be the fourth biggest economy, but the report said it could less able to project power globally because of the lack of a credible military force.
The report said Britain was likely to be able to adapt to the changes.
It has historic, cultural and community links to south Asia, English as the preferred language for business, its geography and connections to the US and Europe. But the research noted it was unclear how beneficial these things could be.
It also warned of other potential problems, such as the possibility of military tensions in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean between China, the US and India.
Chinese and Indian authorities would also have to address demands for welfare support, action to tackle corruption and political change in order to maintain stability and continue their economic development.
An economic collapse of China for example could badly disrupt the global economy, said the report which set out potential trends rather than reflect official UK government or MoD policy.

Read the Full Corporate report

The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)’s ‘South Asia out to 2040’ regional survey identifies key strategic trends for South Asia over the next 30 years and explores the challenges and opportunities that surround an Eastern shift in global power.
In 2010, DCDC published ‘Global Strategic Trends out to 2040’. This document highlighted how, over the next 30 years, the distribution of global economic and military power is likely to shift east.
The ‘South Asia out to 2040’ regional survey develops this analysis and considers what the future international context could look like. It considers how future global military and economic developments are likely to be steered by the continued rise of China, but also, as we move closer to 2040, increasingly by India.
However, in order to make such a shift in power a reality there are numerous internal challenges that will need to be addressed across the region. Issues such as governance, corruption, climate change and inequality will require processes of transformation that are likely to be both uncertain and uneven.
Having established where South Asia is going and how it might get there, the study then considers defence and security implications both globally and for the UK.
PDF Published on 15 January 2013:

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